WEBVTT

NOTE Sentence-level transcript of https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=laQ8wMysnkk

NOTE One cue per sentence. Cue ids are the line anchors on /transcripts/laQ8wMysnkk.html. A cue ends where the next begins, or 2 s after its last word.

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[music]

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Happy Wednesday.

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My name is Carmalee.

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I'm the CEO for Compute Change as well as Silicon Valley.

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Um I love the you know, the previous session.

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Um we talked the talk about a lot about the whole ecosystem, the financiers, and the small market traders, and the hedgers.

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So, what we're sitting in is really cool.

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I've company of Compute Change.

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The world's actually the only neutral marketplaces for GPU procurement.

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We started in 2024 when there were, I don't know, five new clouds, three hyper scalers.

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Um essentially, we sort of will foresee, interestingly enough, the proliferation of the GPU ecosystem.

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So, you think about stock market today, right?

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When you try to buy and sell stocks, you can call brokers.

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Obviously, you can call a few banks to say, "Hey, I want to buy and sell X amount of Tesla or actually SpaceX, right?"

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And you can do that or you can transact through your app at NYSE or NASDAQ.

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Doesn't mean you get the best price at NYSE or NASDAQ just because it's more efficient.

s17
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And you know the liquidity is going to be there.

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You know the trade will be settled.

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It'll be cleared.

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You can get what you're looking for at the prices you're looking for in a very efficient manner, right?

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For capital markets and resource allocation, it's about efficiency.

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So, in computer world, obviously now we have a huge proliferation, which is great.

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We have over 300 new cloud private provider globally.

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We have a lot of token factories.

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We have a lot of API routers, which is all good for end customers.

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But at the same time, introduce a very interesting variable is how do we make transaction efficient, right?

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Do you want to call 300 sales people?

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I mean, it's great to make friends, right?

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You want to talk to them regular basis.

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They know a lot of things.

s31
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But same time, when you need compute in the next 48 hours on reserved contracts, is easiest way is go to exchange and then go to the verified computer resources.

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Just like go to Nasdaq and I see to buy stocks.

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Right?

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So, this one of the things computing does extremely well is we have this neutral platform.

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And by design, we do not own GPUs.

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Once we start owning GPUs, that would translate to just like Nasdaq owning stocks, translate to I have a conflict of interest with you and then with the providers.

s37
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I could cherry-pick clients, right?

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I could hoard relationships.

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Because Compute Change does not own anything by design, we work really well with all our providers globally.

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Um and one very important thing is we treat every single transaction individually, meaning we want to find you as an customer the most suited computer resources.

s41
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And we focus on reserved compute forward contracts as well as token packages.

s42
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So, give you some um high-level.

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So, today we have over 100 verified providers um and over 80,000 GPU in supply.

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We cover all regions, obviously ex-China.

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[gasps]

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Um our commitment is 24-hour turnaround.

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The difference between us and other so-called brokers is we do verify GPUs.

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If it's existing reserved capacity, meaning things are actually in a functional stage, we'll verify the UUIDs, the inventories, the performances.

s49
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We run Nvidia DGX, Inference X, MLPerf, make sure you get resources you promised to get.

s50
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Um so we're in the middle middle sort of trust the platform.

s51
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So if it's forward capacity, I'd say you need GPUs starting Jan 1st, 2027.

s52
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We actually look through the purchase orders, all the permits they get, make sure, you know, we help you do the due diligence level.

s53
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And on the flip side, right?

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If you're a new cloud, you can send this this is a zillion clients looking for compute.

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How do you know who has the ability to pay at a scheduled rate?

s56
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That's where Compute Exchange comes in.

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We do KYB KYC of the clients.

s58
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Obviously, you want to make sure your clients is the clients you think they they are.

s59
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So we step in and do that kind of verification just like any exchange would do.

s60
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And everything we do in the forward markets is actually a precursor to physically delivered futures.

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Also give you some context why I am what I do.

s62
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Sorry, I probably shouldn't say that.

s63
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I start my career as energy option market maker um at DRW Trading, Chicago.

s64
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So I did that for 4 5 years.

s65
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So as option energy market maker, everything's very intuitive.

s66
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You have WTI, you have Brent, right?

s67
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WTI is a physically delivered commodity contracts.

s68
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Brent is cash settled.

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They also have very distinct use cases.

s70
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You're looking for hedging in the financial sense, right?

s71
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The your price volatility, your cost volatility, you're going to Brent.

s72
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You're looking physically procure resources, use WTI.

s73
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So we're creating that the WTI at Compute Exchange.

s74
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So the ways to buy compute through um Compute Exchange right now, you can get reserved contracts, you can get forward contracts on both GPU and token.

s75
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Let me explain.

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The forward contracts on GPU is very reasonable, right?

s77
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You want something starting in the future, nothing available right now.

s78
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So that's something we're doing on regular basis.

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Token forward I think can be a newer-ish concept.

s80
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Basically, you can think about as a dedicated deployment, on-premise deployment, right?

s81
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Similarly, you reserve a bare metal GPU clusters.

s82
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You reserve a cluster, but you have dedicated token deployment on top of that.

s83
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So, you get guaranteed SLAs for that particular models.

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You get quantization, precision, everything's fixed for you for a period of time.

s85
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So, we try to solve the on-demand token API volatility pricing problem here.

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The third is we have a huge market, open hardware market.

s87
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It's really interesting.

s88
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The secondary server transactions started last year when people just pinging me say, "Hey Carmen, I have like 20,000 H100 sitting at data center.

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Can you take away from me?"

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So, I was like, I don't know.

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I can't store it in my home, obviously.

s92
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So, we started having a marketplace for secondary server sales.

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This has been a very vibrant market for the past I would say 12 months.

s94
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We cover again all servers, even B200 you see secondary transaction is happening.

s95
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Sometimes trading above MSRP, right?

s96
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Can make sense think about like COVID times when secondary cars trading above, right?

s97
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It's a brand new car price.

s98
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So, we covered the three major layers of compute.

s99
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So, reserve GPU, obviously, I think the previous speaker covered extremely well with the terms.

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The minimum we do is one node starting at one month, and then we can go all the way to three, four, five years, right?

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It's all depends on the availability, the providers, but you get a chance to state your preferences.

s102
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We don't do on-demand.

s103
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And another thing really works really well for config changes we do provide a flexibility.

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Let's say you have over committed it in terms of quantity or duration, you can sell it back to config change, right?

s105
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So, that's something we committed to do.

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So, you don't have to worry too much if you over bought.

s107
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All right, segment life So, I will actually do a quick demo later.

s108
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Um so, we have a lot listings, marketplace listings you can browse and chat with the providers and figure out the best silver mechanisms.

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You can also RFQ if you don't see anything you like you liked.

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We actually seen over a billion RFQ'd every month.

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Sounds big, but we all know it's full computer it's not that huge, right?

s112
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But still you see the the the the the activities, which a lot is we see a big range of RFQ requests from one node all the way to 20,000

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nodes.

s114
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So, our clients are you know, all different shapes and forms, different use cases, which is great.

s115
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Yeah, so you set timing submit and we route it.

s116
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So, in the behind the scene, we have inventory tracking.

s117
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So, with over 100 providers globally, we know who has one roughly one right before capacity.

s118
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And then I say you you submit a request in that hey, I need 30 300 GPUs B200 US East starting Jan 1st.

s119
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We say, you know, we have three providers we think they have those.

s120
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We'll route them to the three.

s121
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They will respond to you through the platforms and they'll give you um a rubrics back.

s122
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Pricing, specs, SLAs, we benchmark them if it's existing servers and then it's your choice, right?

s123
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Price is not only indicator.

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We believe give you as much transparency as we can and then you will make a decision.

s125
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So, everything is in one place.

s126
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Again, the rubrics come back.

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You will see everything and we introduce you to each other.

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We never hold relationships, right?

s129
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We'll make sure you know who you're dealing with.

s130
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Um so, buy tomorrow's computer today's price.

s131
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So, it's a physically procured platform.

s132
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This is the used refurbished uh GPUs.

s133
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So, again, we have a extremely um exciting uh ecosystem participants in this uh in this uh secondary GPU cells.

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We cover from 490s to B1200, AMD, everything.

s135
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Inventory is life and we do connect with you through all different channels like email, chat, however you want to do this.

s136
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Um we track end to end.

s137
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We actually have scoring for everybody.

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We score you, our customers.

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We score our providers.

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You can't see it quite yet, but you know, it'll be really fun.

s141
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Um we're going to have end of year celebration for our providers.

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We can We're going to give all the best provider in APAC, best provider in Europe, best provider in US, most responsible providers.

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So, we're going to have a lot of a provider awards coming up.

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Stay tuned.

s145
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Um verify network.

s146
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So, everything's uh you know, verified, which is you know, negotiate state exchange.

s147
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So, we help in terms of be the middleman.

s148
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Sometimes things are not very clear.

s149
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We try to make sure people understand what's the best practices we have seen in the ecosystem.

s150
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I'm going to quickly show you guys the platform.

s151
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I think that's more fun.

s152
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Uh here.

s153
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So, this is the platform.

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You can see a bunch of available inventories.

s155
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By the way, anyone can come sign up.

s156
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It's completely free.

s157
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There's no downside using us.

s158
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You don't have to buy, you can browse.

s159
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You can request for quote if you, you know, interested something we don't have.

s160
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You can start with your vendor type.

s161
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Again, we agnostic of GPUs.

s162
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You can select your model, you can select your deployment type.

s163
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You can select number of GPUs.

s164
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You can select your compute interconnect preferences, CPU platforms, storages, everything you need.

s165
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And then some optional items with system software stacks, regions.

s166
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Obviously, we encourage you to select multiple regions if you open to that.

s167
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You can add head nodes, tell us your use cases, anything you want, and then submit RFQ.

s168
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So, this has been extremely robust.

s169
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And then we, you know, we obviously we want to make sure um if you have any feedback, let us know.

s170
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So, I'm going to pause on Compute Change side.

s171
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Um I think I have some time left, which I'd love to show you some of numbers we've seen in terms of term structure.

s172
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Also, context.

s173
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I'm CEO for Compute Change.

s174
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I'm also CEO for another company called Silicon Data.

s175
00:12:35.760 --> 00:12:40.960
So, I'm a founder CEO for Silicon Data, which is the Bloomberg for compute.

s176
00:12:40.960 --> 00:12:47.200
So, we provide indices for CME to settle their futures on, which will be happening in a few weeks.

s177
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We I'm very excited about this.

s178
00:12:49.440 --> 00:12:59.760
So, the one that's going to be start trading at CME will be the H100 near cloud on demand rate as well as V200 um prices.

s179
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What I want to show you is implied forward curve.

s180
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So, as I said, Compute Change we do a lot of forward capacities.

s181
00:13:07.640 --> 00:13:16.000
So, essentially a lot of longer term contracts is going to be very critical using about even in your cloud or your your consumers.

s182
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Let me just make it larger.

s183
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So, the yellow line was last year, right?

s184
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The the X horizontal line is the duration, and the dollar amount is the Y axis.

s185
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So, last year was complete downward sloping curve for the yellow line, right?

s186
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Meaning the longer term contract you signed, the cheaper you know, was per shift per hour.

s187
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And this year, starting early this year, the whole curve shift up and became contango.

s188
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If you see the the red line, right?

s189
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So, translate to people not getting a discount enough discount for longer term contract.

s190
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Implies that people assume the price going to rise down the line.

s191
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And now you see the price the whole curve keeps shifting up, got flattened, right?

s192
00:14:01.280 --> 00:14:08.440
So, meaning people are now either get penalized or get, you know, awarded by signing long term contract.

s193
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This is reserved contract we observe.

s194
00:14:10.920 --> 00:14:15.600
And if you look at implied forward rates, this is not this is the implied forward rates, right?

s195
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Because we don't have a future trading.

s196
00:14:17.920 --> 00:14:21.960
So, this is calculated based on our term structure.

s197
00:14:21.960 --> 00:14:24.680
And we use similar methodology as Treasury futures curve.

s198
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So, you can see a market consensus view is the price could go up next in the the future next 36 months.

s199
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Again, market consensus doesn't mean it's right.

s200
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If you look at B200, again, last year was contango and this year the whole curve shift up.

s201
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Every single term is more expensive and it's got flattened, right?

s202
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Implied forward rates, similarly, people think the price going to go up.

s203
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I want to point this out the term structure how is this shows you that GPU is behaves just like any commodity, have a very clear term structure risks, which data futures are excellent at hedging.

s204
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So, we have seen a lot block trading happening around the term structure.

s205
00:15:10.000 --> 00:15:11.200
So, you think about this, right?

s206
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If you have servers on your balance sheet, you have financing obligation for next 5-6 years, and you have reserved contracts for first three, then you're exposed essentially year four, five, or six, right?

s207
00:15:24.880 --> 00:15:30.520
So, you want to hedge that risk out by entering, you know, a swaps or block trading.

s208
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Um so, those are things Oh, or there there are trades happening even for the first three years, which you have resale contracts on.

s209
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What if the resale contract defaulted, right?

s210
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What's your um guarantee from some of the players?

s211
00:15:45.840 --> 00:15:48.320
So, we saw block trading happening around the indices.

s212
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Trade as a floating rate.

s213
00:15:54.920 --> 00:16:02.040
This chart um actually is being uh used differently by the NVIDIA team.

s214
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Um in NVIDIA's latest uh um September investor day deck, they said us with only data provider that actually cited in our deck.

s215
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Um this is very interesting.

s216
00:16:14.400 --> 00:16:20.200
Silicon data becomes the appraisal for a few banks when they have GPU servers on their balance sheet.

s217
00:16:20.200 --> 00:16:24.880
Um this everything you see here uh forward-looking view, right?

s218
00:16:24.880 --> 00:16:27.200
So, it's discounted cash flow.

s219
00:16:27.200 --> 00:16:29.040
So, as I said, we have a time structure.

s220
00:16:29.040 --> 00:16:31.120
So, assume A100s, right?

s221
00:16:31.120 --> 00:16:33.360
A100s have been around for six years.

s222
00:16:33.360 --> 00:16:44.080
If today you sign a three-year long lease on A100s, and you have a rate, and we discount the the cash back to time zero, you have how much the asset's worth,

s223
00:16:44.080 --> 00:16:45.200
right?

s224
00:16:45.200 --> 00:16:50.880
Obviously, there's a lot of things baked in, utilization rate, what is your cost.

s225
00:16:50.880 --> 00:16:54.480
There's a bunch of assumptions which we're pretty transparent about.

s226
00:16:54.480 --> 00:17:03.240
Um we actually calculate the residual value for normalized value, obviously, across all A100, H100, B200 servers globally.

s227
00:17:03.240 --> 00:17:09.920
And then we'll compare that with the straight-line depreciation, which is everybody using the five-year depreciation.

s228
00:17:09.920 --> 00:17:11.720
What's interesting is the A100, right?

s229
00:17:11.720 --> 00:17:20.439
Even though it is downward sloping, you know, think means things are a but it's worth the accounting depreciation curve, straight line.

s230
00:17:20.439 --> 00:17:26.600
And the H100 obviously, you know, it's going going bananas now and the price actually went up.

s231
00:17:26.600 --> 00:17:31.320
My My analogy would be just like secondary cars during COVID time.

s232
00:17:31.320 --> 00:17:33.400
The price went up, right?

s233
00:17:33.400 --> 00:17:38.280
And B200 obviously went above its MSRP by this point.

s234
00:17:38.280 --> 00:17:42.720
So, this is give some give you some views about what's going on in the secondary market side.

s235
00:17:42.720 --> 00:17:51.240
I think I'm out of time, but you know, feel free to follow me at Carmen CLI at computerhistory.com, CLI@computerhistory.com.

s236
00:17:51.240 --> 00:17:52.880
Feel free to get me on Twitter.

s237
00:17:52.880 --> 00:17:54.920
Carmen Li is my Twitter handle.

s238
00:17:54.920 --> 00:17:56.440
Just Carmen Li.

s239
00:17:56.440 --> 00:17:57.480
That's it.

s240
00:17:57.480 --> 00:17:59.680
Thank you.