Inside the AI Economy: What Stripe's Data Reveals — Nilofer Rajpurkar, Stripe

AI Engineer · 20 min · 229 sentences · from YouTube's caption track

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00:01[music]
00:12Good morning everyone and thank you for joining us here today.
00:15My name is Nil Farajj Par and I'm a product lead at Stripe.
00:19I work on our agent and developer experiences team and these are increasingly becoming one and the same.
00:27At Stripe, we work with some of the fastest growing AI companies, many of who are in this room today.
00:33And we get a front row seat into what's working, what's not, and how these companies scale.
00:38So today, I'm excited to show you some data from what we are seeing about how companies are building.
00:46So there's a few patterns that we're seeing across the top AI companies.
00:49First, they're building faster.
00:52I think we can all see this happening in real time.
00:54Next, they're selling globally by default.
00:57On day one, the entire world is your market.
01:01Third, they're pricing for the AI economy.
01:0410 years ago, subscriptions was the hot new model on the block, but this just doesn't work anymore.
01:10And last, they're adapting to new go to market motions very quickly.
01:14So, this is a bit of a big picture of what we're going to talk about today.
01:17And before we jump in, I want to ground us in a little bit of data.
01:21So in 2025, we saw AI revenue grow by 120%.
01:26A year later, we're seeing that now grow by 175%.
01:31Almost tripling.
01:33And so AI revenue growth isn't slowing down.
01:35In fact, it's on a tear.
01:37And uh this is uh what we're going to be uh talking a little bit more about today.
01:42And the folks who are at the top of those AI companies are even more remarkable.
01:46Take Lovable for example.
01:48They uh reported 100 million in eight months and then eight months later reported 400 million.
01:55Curser had a 1 billion run rate in two years and then just three months later doubled to 2 billion.
02:02Anthropic shared that they went from zero in January 2023 to a billion just two years later and now they're at 30 billion.
02:10So the growth rate here is really wild.
02:13But we're not just seeing this in our B2B data.
02:16We're seeing this in our consumer data with our consumer product link as well.
02:20Our link data shows that consumer adoption of AI products doubled from just under 6 million to over 14 million in a span of a single year.
02:29And all of those customers are spending more as well.
02:32Our top link buyers are spending almost $360 a month on AI tools and services, up from $183 just three months ago.
02:41So that's almost doubling in the span of a quarter.
02:44This is more than the average American spends on phone, internet, and streaming services combined.
02:49But the difference is users aren't treating this like a streaming service they might drop tomorrow.
02:53AI tooling is becoming a critical utility for them.
02:58So, we talked a little bit about revenue growth and adoption doubling, but the question is what's really behind all of this growth?
03:04So, I'd love to jump in with our first pattern that I mentioned, which was building faster, and talk a little bit about speed.
03:12So just like you no longer need months of engineering to accept a payment, you no longer need months of engineering work to build and ship software.
03:20As of late 2024, iOS apps were releases were declining.
03:25And then you can see Agentic coding tools started to hit and that growth rate has grown quite uh substantially to 24% month- over-month.
03:34And we saw a very similar pattern with Delaware incorporations of new businesses as well.
03:40You can see where the graph starts to take off again aligning with the release of these agentic coding tools.
03:46So, everyone's talking about these non-technical founders who are vibe coding their way to new businesses and yeah, that's definitely true.
03:53But what we found interesting is that the share of technical founders is actually growing as well and grew 7% in the span of a year.
04:00Many of you in this room are technical and you're probably doing in a week now what was taking teams entire months to do.
04:08And so what's really here uh salient here is that the speed is now available for everyone.
04:13For the nontechnical founders who are hosting and building using developer platforms or for the technical founders who are comfortable using things like cursor or claude locally.
04:23It's never been faster to build and monetize a product.
04:30And we actually see this in some of the data of developer platforms who are partnering with Stripe.
04:35So for some of our nontechnical users who are building with lovable forcell or replet, we're seeing something interesting in the data.
04:42Each successive monthly cohort is getting to a paid customer faster and faster.
04:48In fact, our latest cohorts are getting from a product to a paid customer in less than six weeks.
04:56And that speed is available for a technical founder as well.
04:59So this should this experience gets better with some of the work my team is doing at Stripe releasing things like our MCP server and agent skills and steering.
05:07So I'd love to take you through an example here.
05:09I've got a new business vibe check and I am ready to add payments.
05:13So I'm going to jump into Claude, describe a little bit about my business model and tell Claude I'm ready to add subscriptions and invoicing support.
05:21Claude correctly recommends building with Stripe and it gets p it gets more powerful when you add in our MCP skills and our MCP server and our agent skills.
05:33But that uh information makes Claude deliver a better recommendation of how it should build the Stripe integration.
05:40So it uses our Stripe integration recommener MCP tool to ask me a little bit of more information so that it can build the right integration for me.
05:48It's asking me where my customers are located so it can decide if it should recommend Stripe Tax or not.
05:52It knows to recommend Stripe Checkout over card elements because Checkout has a better subscriptions integration.
05:58So, I'll go ahead and tell Claude that my customers are located in both the US and the EU.
06:03And it tells me you probably want to go ahead and use Stripe Tax, which it learned from our agent skills, because in the EU, my digital subscriptions are subject to a VAT calculation
06:12and I am not a tax expert.
06:14So, I'll go ahead and take advantage of that.
06:17You can also see that Claude is provisioning a new Stripe sandbox for me.
06:22This is done via a new CLI command where an agent is able to create a Stripe sandbox without me needing to provide any Stripe credentials up front.
06:30It goes ahead and grabs API keys for the sandbox and stores them securely.
06:34And so now I'm able to get to a working endtoend demo without having to exit Claude and see that checkout working completely.
06:43So Claude's gone ahead and managed my keys for me and then it's taking a look through the rest of our agent skills to make sure it delivers the right recommendation.
06:51It's now ready to ask me if I want to use the MCP tools to go ahead and build out my product catalog.
06:56And I'll say yes.
06:58And we'll skip a little forward to a completed product here.
07:01So now I have a subscription button on my website.
07:05I'll go ahead and click subscribe.
07:07And I can see a fully working checkout form ready to go for me to test this out.
07:11I'll provide some test card details.
07:13Go ahead and click subscribe.
07:15And I can see that test payment process.
07:18And there you go.
07:18Now I can see a full endto-end flow of what my customers will see when trying to subscribe to my website without ever having to have left claude.
07:28So what does this mean for you in practice?
07:30First, you need to obsess over developer productivity.
07:34The best teams who are doing this are treating this like a priority and not as an afterthought because build times are compressing to be smaller and smaller.
07:42Our tools that we're building like our MCP server, our agent skills and steering as well as agent guard rails for sensitive uh actions like money movement should help you throughout this process.
07:52Next, you need to build, sell, and iterate all at the same time.
07:57The old playbook of building and taking a while before you get to your first customer just is too slow for the reality that we're living in.
08:04The best teams are doing this in parallel.
08:07And lastly, when confronted with build versus buy decisions, top AI companies are doing both.
08:12They're building the things that they've identified are uh differentiators for them and buying the building blocks that they need to enable that.
08:22Okay, so building fast is one thing, but where you sell is just as important.
08:26So let's talk about what it means to sell globally by default.
08:31The old pattern here was that as a SAS company, I would focus on my home market and then once I feel good, start to expand into some other markets.
08:39A I might go hire a GM in London, build a new office and boom, now I'm an international company.
08:45But that just doesn't work anymore and is far too slow for what we're seeing with the top AI companies.
08:50The old SAS model would have had you in 25 countries in year one and then 50 countries by year three.
08:57But our top AI companies are blowing that out of the water.
09:00In year one, they're selling in 48 countries and by year three, they're in 120 different countries.
09:06And this isn't about having a presence in those countries.
09:08It's about real paying customers in those places.
09:13Gamma is a great example of this.
09:17Perhaps they are.
09:19Let me tell you about them.
09:20So they uh are an AI powered slide and website builder and they've reported over a 100 million in revenue in their first year.
09:30Although they're based in SF, they're the majority of their revenue is actually coming from outside of the United States.
09:36And so what we're seeing is that they're not the exception anymore.
09:39They're actually the rule of how these top AI companies are building.
09:44Might get some slides back.
09:46I'll keep talking anyway.
09:48And what we're seeing is actually across those top AI companies, 48% of that revenue is coming from outside of their home markets.
09:55So that's nearly half of every dollar that top AI companies are making.
09:59And so what we're really noticing here with this being up from 33% 3 years ago is that global revenue is no longer a bonus for your business model.
10:08It's actually becoming critical for how your business makes money.
10:14How we do it on slides.
10:18maybe.
10:20All right.
10:21Okay.
10:22So, I'll keep I'll keep walking us through here.
10:24Um, let's talk a little bit about some data that we're seeing uh of where people are spending the most on AI on Stripe.
10:32I'd show you a fancy map, so just pretend.
10:34Um, what we're seeing is that some of the highest spend is coming from countries with the highest GDP.
10:40Unsurprising, right?
10:41So, countries like the United States, Japan, Germany.
10:45But what's more interesting is some of the hot spots that are emerging uh of where people are spending the most.
10:51This is in countries like Brazil and India and South Korea.
10:56And so it's clear that there's demand for AI services and tooling in those countries.
11:00But how do you make sure that you are capturing it?
11:04One way that we make that you can make sure you do this is by meeting your customers expectations and selling in currency that matches what they're used to and local payment methods that they know you want.
11:14they want you to support.
11:17In fact, we saw that companies who present prices in local currency saw almost 18% higher crossber revenue and that companies who present and support at least one local payment method saw a greater than 7% conversion uplift
11:32and agents are increasingly knowing how to do this with our Stripe skills.
11:37You saw as we walked through the demo, Stripe uh the agent recommended that I use Stripe Tax, but it's more than just that.
11:42Through our skills, an agent knows that they should support local currency presentation and local payment methods so that you can help so they can help you optimize for selling in those local markets.
11:54You no longer need to be an expert in the markets that you are selling in because Stripe already is and can help you with that.
12:01So, here's a few things to think about to pressure test your global readiness.
12:05First, localize your prices and payment methods in the markets that you're going to be go going to be selling in.
12:12Next, automate tax collection because nobody wants to get in trouble because they didn't know the tax rules.
12:17And last, track your revenue and conversion performance by countries and optimize ruthlessly.
12:25Okay, so let's talk a little bit about how pricing is changing for the AI economy because the models we're used to aren't quite working anymore.
12:33We're used to thinking about the value of software as a tool.
12:36You might spend 10k on Zenesk and then go buy go hire some customer support representatives to actually handle the customer support tickets that are coming into you.
12:46But AI is fundamentally shifting how we think about that value.
12:50As products gain agentic uh capabilities, we're actually able to see them deliver on value and we can think about their value as a as an output of that result.
13:02For example, Intercom's Finn actually goes and manages and resolves customer support requests for you.
13:08So, as we start thinking about this new model, that value actually starts to become measurable, counted in things like resolutions, commits, workflows completed, and then we're forced and incentivized to start thinking about how we price our products to actually communicate that value.
13:25And thinking about this repricing isn't new.
13:28We've done this every time we've had a major technology shift.
13:31We started with the on-prem software where things were pretty stable after an install and so a one-time license made sense.
13:37But then we moved to cloud and your software was getting updated continuously and so a subscription model started to fit the bill.
13:44And about now is where you expect for me to tell you what the right model for AI is.
13:48So I've got some good news and some bad news.
13:51The bad news is we're in the early innings.
13:53We're still figuring this out.
13:55But the good news is we are seeing some patterns emerge amongst our stripe data.
14:00Take replet for example, a developer platform that has been around for almost a decade.
14:05When agentic coding really started to take off, they re pivoted their product and rethought their pricing and have since seen hockey stick growth.
14:15They started with a flat subscriptions model and then added on credits as AI became core to their product.
14:23subscriptions for predictability for their users and then usage for value capture.
14:28And so the result is that Replet is aiming for a 1 billion ARR this year.
14:34And they're not alone in thinking about their pricing in this way.
14:36Usagebased billing is becoming critical for anybody selling AI services.
14:41In fact, two and three of the Forbes AI50 companies have some form of usagebased pricing and many are delivering that sort of hybrid model that Replet is.
14:51The subscription piece helps you anchor in your relationship with your customer and provide them that predictability.
14:56And the usage based pill uh billing piece helps scale with the usage uh that your customer experiences as they grow.
15:04So knowing you need to be usage based is one thing, but what does that mean in practice?
15:10Here's a few principles to think about.
15:12First, price in your customers language.
15:15Developers think in tokens.
15:17Enterprises think in seats.
15:18But more and more everyone is being uh exposed to and becoming comfortable with consumption.
15:23And so think about how you can communicate the value that your uh users are receiving in the way that you communicate the price.
15:31Next, you want to give your customers real time spend visibility before they get their bill.
15:37No one has opened up their electric bill and thought, "Huh, that's cheaper than I expected."
15:41And you don't want the same to be true with users of your products.
15:45So, make sure that you're communicating their real-time usage so that they understand what the the cost is going to be at the end of the day.
15:52This is not just a nice to have.
15:54It's critical to prevent user churn.
15:56Lastly, think about selling credits, not costs.
16:00Have your users exchange money for credits on your product upfront and one time so that when they're using your product, they're thinking about the value that they're they're experiencing and not the dollars and cents for every action that they're taking.
16:14Okay, one more trend for us to walk through here and this is how companies or top AI companies are adapting to new gotom market motions.
16:22So the old pattern here was you'd build a product, you'd have a productled uh growth uh system here and you would expect companies and startups to find your product organically.
16:33Then at some point in a few years you'd transition to salesled as you found product market fit.
16:39And what we're seeing is that process is just entirely too slow in the way that new companies are building.
16:45And many companies are actually starting an enterprise sales motion early in year one of their uh build.
16:53Cursor, for example, started out in 2023 as a self-s serve model for developers, and they quickly realized they needed to build a salesled motion so that they could go land enterprise contracts.
17:05Now, Cursor has built a really impressive salesled motion that would have taken companies before months, if not years, to build.
17:15And that's not the only shift we're seeing.
17:17Yes, you're starting salesled emotions a lot earlier, but we're also seeing new motions emerge.
17:22For example, channel sales are becoming a much larger piece of the equation.
17:26Users are buying anthropic and open AI services directly through their cloud providers.
17:31And many of these AI uh uh products are actually introducing marketplaces so that others can do the same and sell through them as well.
17:39And then there's the billion or perhaps trillion dollar question.
17:42How do we adapt for our new buyers, agents?
17:46We've spent decades thinking about human psychology when pricing products, things like $9.99 instead of $10, good, better, best systems.
17:55But the thing is, agents don't care about any of these tricks.
17:59This chart might be the most illustrative of this.
18:03So in 2025, we saw agent traffic to Stripe docs 10x in a single year.
18:08This chart is showing human traffic to docs and agent traffic to docs.
18:12And you, as you can see, those lines are converging.
18:14And by the end of 2026, we expect that agents are going to be reading far more docs than humans and using that as discovery mechanisms for our products.
18:23So here's the part that most people underestimate.
18:26When you go to adopt new go-to market motions monitor, that's just the tip of the iceberg.
18:31There's a whole section that needs to move underneath.
18:34Every time you adopt a new motion, you have to adapt your product.
18:37You need to think about how onboarding is now going to change for those new channels.
18:41Your pricing model needs to adjust and your organization needs to be ready to support this.
18:45Supporting an enterprise customer is much different than supporting the long tale of self-s serve.
18:50So a new GTM motion really means a shift in the underlying business model of your company.
18:56Another place that's different is how uh companies actually build revenue infrastructure.
19:01Previously they would bolt things on and when you were going slowly this was okay.
19:06When you start to compress 10 years of go to market infrastructure into the matter of months the seams between each of these tools starts to become really really apparent and becomes a liability.
19:17As you're thinking about your customers as channel uh moving across any of these channels, here are some things to think about in your go to market motions.
19:26You need to have a clear articulation of how people move from self-s serve to an enterprise and how the pricing model changes when they do.
19:34You should build unified business systems.
19:36This means one representation of your customer, one product catalog, and unified data models across each of these services.
19:44And lastly, you need to think about how you're designing for agents as buyers.
19:47An agent needs to be able to discover, evaluate, and activate your product without a human in the loop.
19:54Okay, so we've talked about how the top AI companies are building, selling, pricing, and adapting to go to market motions differently now.
20:02building faster in the matter of hours and days, selling in 42 countries on day one, pricing for value, and starting an enterprise sales motion before they've raised their series A.
20:13It's never been a more exciting or fun time to be a builder.
20:17My team at Stripe is focused on how we make sure that we're building the right things to empower you to monetize and build faster.
20:25So, if you've got any feedback or questions on how we can better support you in that journey, love to chat.
20:30Thank you so much.
20:32[applause]
20:47[music]